How much panic did the 1938 War of the Worlds broadcast really cause?
On 30 October 1938 Orson Welles and the Mercury Theatre broadcast a Martian invasion of New Jersey as a string of fake news bulletins on CBS radio. The next morning newspapers reported a nationwide panic, and a 1940 Princeton study estimated that at least a million listeners were frightened or disturbed.
6 established, 5 disputed, 2 debunked, 1 unresolved. We do not pick an answer; the evidence places each claim. How we decide
36 citations from 8 independent sources - 28 echo the same voices and count once. Graded A1-D1.
Added 29 Sept 2026
What the four states mean
- Establishedsupported, uncontested
- Disputedcredible sources disagree
- Debunkedrefuted by the evidence
- Unresolvedno settled answer
Established 6supported, uncontested
On the night of the broadcast, the C. E. Hooper ratings service found only 2% of the 5,000 homes it called listening to the Mercury program, and none of them described it as a news broadcast.▰▰▰▱▱ likely2 points
Supports- C. E. Hooper Inc., New York, aircheck firm, announced that only 2% of the homes it called in a nationwide routine check of 5,000 homes were listening to the Mercury program. The question asked was "to what program are you listening?" All listeners tuned to the drama answered "play", "Orson Welles program" or something similar and no one said "news broadcast" or "war news".Broadcasting magazine, November 15, 1938, "Press and Public Divided in Reaction to Mars Program" (pp. 15, 28) primary
- The night the program aired, the C.E. Hooper ratings service telephoned 5,000 households for its national ratings survey. “To what program are you listening?” the service asked respondents. Only 2 percent answered a radio “play” or “the Orson Welles program,” or something similar indicating CBS. None said a “news broadcast,” according to a summary published in Broadcasting.Jefferson Pooley and Michael J. Socolow, "The Myth of the War of the Worlds Panic", Slate, October 28, 2013 analysis
Cantril's estimate rested on a survey in which 28 per cent of listeners said they believed the broadcast was a news bulletin, from which he calculated that about 1,700,000 people heard it as news and about 1,200,000 were excited by it.▰▰▰▱▱ likely2 points
Supports- 28 per cent indicated that they believed the broadcast was a news bulletin. Seventy per cent of those who thought they were listening to a news report were frightened or disturbed. This would mean that about 1,700,000 heard the broadcast as a news bulletin and that about 1,200,000 were excited by it.Hadley Cantril, The Invasion from Mars: A Study in the Psychology of Panic (Princeton University Press, 1940), full text authoritative
- Cantril calculated that of about 1.7 million people who heard the drama, nearly 1.2 million "were excited" to varying degrees (58).Robert E. Bartholomew, "The Martian Panic Sixty Years Later: What Have We Learned?", Skeptical Inquirer, November/December 1998 analysis
No specific death has ever been conclusively attributed to the broadcast, and no newspaper reported a verified suicide connected to it.▰▰▰▱▱ likely3 points
Supports- Wire service reports did relay sensational stories of (unnamed) panicked listeners saved only by the timely intervention of friends or neighbors, but not one newspaper reported a verified suicide connected to the broadcast.Jefferson Pooley and Michael J. Socolow, "The Myth of the War of the Worlds Panic", Slate, October 28, 2013 analysis
- No specific death has ever been conclusively attributed to the drama.Jefferson Pooley and Michael J. Socolow, "The Myth of the War of the Worlds Panic", Slate, October 28, 2013 analysis
- No deaths were attributed to the War of the Worlds broadcast.W. Joseph Campbell, "'War of the Worlds' radio panic was overstated", Media Myth Alert, October 3, 2010 analysis
Of the letters sent to Welles and to the FCC after the broadcast, about 27 percent describe people frightened or panicked.▰▰▰▱▱ likely3 points
Supports- Nearly 1,400 other people sent letters and telegrams to Welles in the days following War of the Worlds.A. Brad Schwartz, "Orson Welles and History's First Viral-Media Event", Vanity Fair, April 27, 2015 (adapted from Broadcast Hysteria) analysis
- Of the nearly 2,000 letters mailed to Welles and the Federal Communications Commission after "The War of the Worlds", currently held by the University of Michigan and the National Archives and Records Administration, roughly 27% came from frightened listeners or people who witnessed any panic.Wikipedia, "The War of the Worlds (1938 radio drama)" summary
- When both collections are combined, only a fraction of these letters, about 27 percent, describe people frightened or panicked.A. Brad Schwartz, "Orson Welles and History's First Viral-Media Event", Vanity Fair, April 27, 2015 (adapted from Broadcast Hysteria) analysis
Some listeners did flee their homes, but such scenes were very rare, and most people frightened by the program stayed close to their radios.▰▰▰▱▱ likely2 points
Supports- The story of John and Estelle Paultz, and a handful of other people who fled their homes or thought of doing so, prove that the War of the Worlds panic had a definite basis in fact, though such scenes were very, very rare. Even among people frightened by the program, most stayed close to their radios, listening intently for up to half an hour before they figured out it was science fiction (as many did) or heard an announcement that it was a dramatization.A. Brad Schwartz, "Orson Welles and History's First Viral-Media Event", Vanity Fair, April 27, 2015 (adapted from Broadcast Hysteria) analysis
- However, regardless of the extent of the panic, there is little doubt that many Americans were genuinely frightened and some did try to flee the Martian gas raids and heat rays, especially in New Jersey and New York.Robert E. Bartholomew, "The Martian Panic Sixty Years Later: What Have We Learned?", Skeptical Inquirer, November/December 1998 analysis
The FCC issued no official rulings or regulations over the broadcast, and neither CBS nor Welles was sanctioned.▰▰▱▱▱ likely2 points
Supports- It's true that Federal Communications Commission chairman Frank McNinch quickly obtained informal agreement from the radio networks that fictional news “flashes” would not be used again, but no official rulings or regulations were promulgated. Nor were CBS or Welles sanctioned in any manner.Jefferson Pooley and Michael J. Socolow, "The Myth of the War of the Worlds Panic", Slate, October 28, 2013 analysis
- As it turned out, the FCC did not file an official complaint, and the “firehouse” data Stanton had culled was never published.Jefferson D. Pooley and Michael J. Socolow, "Checking Up on The Invasion from Mars", International Journal of Communication 7 (2013) analysis
Disputed 5credible sources disagree
The American Institute of Public Opinion survey, which gave an audience over 100 per cent higher than any other measure, was probably the most accurate count of the broadcast's audience.▰▰▰▱▱ roughly even chance1 against2 points
Supports- The AIPO figure is over 100 per cent higher than any other known measure of this audience. However, since the Institute reaches many small communities and non-telephone homes not regularly sampled by radio research organizations, its result is probably the most accurate.Hadley Cantril, The Invasion from Mars: A Study in the Psychology of Panic (Princeton University Press, 1940), full text authoritative
Against- Cantril defended his reliance on AIPO data by noting that it surveyed homes without telephones and small communities often overlooked by radio ratings agencies. But this cherry-picked data set was clearly tainted by the sensationalistic newspaper publicity following the broadcast (a possibility Cantril also admitted).Jefferson Pooley and Michael J. Socolow, "The Myth of the War of the Worlds Panic", Slate, October 28, 2013 analysis
Telephone volume in metropolitan northern New Jersey rose 39 per cent above normal during the hour of the broadcast.▰▰▰▱▱ roughly even chance1 against2 points
Supports- An increase of 39 per cent was reported in the telephone volume in metropolitan northern New Jersey during the hour of the broadcast as compared to the usual volume of that hour of the evening.Hadley Cantril, The Invasion from Mars: A Study in the Psychology of Panic (Princeton University Press, 1940), full text authoritative
Against- New Jersey Bell Telephone Co., serving the region where Mars excitement was greatest, recorded an increase of only 6 or 7% above normal in local exchange calls during and immediately after the program.Broadcasting magazine, November 15, 1938, "Press and Public Divided in Reaction to Mars Program" (pp. 15, 28) primary
Newspapers sensationalized the panic to discredit radio as a source of news.▰▰▰▱▱ roughly even chance1 against2 points
Supports- So the papers seized the opportunity presented by Welles' program to discredit radio as a source of news. The newspaper industry sensationalized the panic to prove to advertisers, and regulators, that radio management was irresponsible and not to be trusted.Jefferson Pooley and Michael J. Socolow, "The Myth of the War of the Worlds Panic", Slate, October 28, 2013 analysis
Against- But there is no hard evidence that the press deliberately played up the panic in order to cast aspersions on news broadcasting. In fact, papers and radio were getting along better than ever in the fall of 1938, having finally realized that the public saw them as complimentary news sources, not competitors.A. Brad Schwartz, "Orson Welles and History's First Viral-Media Event", Vanity Fair, April 27, 2015 (adapted from Broadcast Hysteria) analysis
Welles set out to make the broadcast appear to be a real event rather than a radio play.▰▰▰▱▱ roughly even chance2 against3 points
Supports- In a 1960 court deposition, as part of a lawsuit suing CBS to be recognized as the broadcast's rightful co-author, Welles offered an explanation for his inspiration for War of the Worlds: “I had conceived the idea of doing a radio broadcast in such a manner that a crisis would actually seem to be happening,” he said, “and would be broadcast in such a dramatized form as to appear to be a real event taking place at that time, rather than a mere radio play.”A. Brad Schwartz, "The Infamous War of the Worlds Radio Broadcast Was a Magnificent Fluke", Smithsonian Magazine, May 6, 2015 analysis
Against- The truth can only be found among long-forgotten script drafts and the memories of Welles's collaborators, which capture the chaotic behind-the-scenes saga of the broadcast: no one involved with War of the Worlds expected to deceive any listeners, because they all found the story too silly and improbable to ever be taken seriously.A. Brad Schwartz, "The Infamous War of the Worlds Radio Broadcast Was a Magnificent Fluke", Smithsonian Magazine, May 6, 2015 analysis
- In fact, they denied it over and over again, long after legal reprisals were a serious concern.A. Brad Schwartz, "The Infamous War of the Worlds Radio Broadcast Was a Magnificent Fluke", Smithsonian Magazine, May 6, 2015 analysis
Cantril treated the listeners he counted as frightened, disturbed or excited as evidence that the broadcast created a panic.▰▰▰▱▱ unlikely2 against4 points
Supports- This broadcast with these warnings created the panic.Hadley Cantril, The Invasion from Mars: A Study in the Psychology of Panic (Princeton University Press, 1940), full text authoritative
- At least six million people heard the broadcast. At least a million of them were frightened or disturbed.Hadley Cantril, The Invasion from Mars: A Study in the Psychology of Panic (Princeton University Press, 1940), full text authoritative
Against- Worse, Cantril committed an obvious categorical error by conflating being “frightened,” “disturbed,” or “excited” by the program with being “panicked.”Jefferson Pooley and Michael J. Socolow, "The Myth of the War of the Worlds Panic", Slate, October 28, 2013 analysis
- I further note that “one can watch a horror movie and feel ‘frightened,’ ‘disturbed,’ or ‘excited,’ but such responses are hardly synonymous with panic or hysteria.” Far from it.W. Joseph Campbell, "'War of the Worlds' radio panic was overstated", Media Myth Alert, October 3, 2010 analysis
Debunked 2refuted by the evidence
Cantril's The Invasion from Mars describes people all over the United States praying, crying and fleeing frantically to escape death from the Martians.Refuted by
There's only one problem: The supposed panic was so tiny as to be practically immeasurable on the night of the broadcast. Despite repeated assertions to the contrary in the PBS and NPR programs, almost nobody was fooled by Welles' broadcast.
refuted3 against4 pointsThe claim rested on- Long before the broadcast had ended, people all over the United States were praying, crying, fleeing frantically to escape death from the Martians.Hadley Cantril, The Invasion from Mars: A Study in the Psychology of Panic (Princeton University Press, 1940), full text authoritative
Refuted by- There's only one problem: The supposed panic was so tiny as to be practically immeasurable on the night of the broadcast. Despite repeated assertions to the contrary in the PBS and NPR programs, almost nobody was fooled by Welles' broadcast.Jefferson Pooley and Michael J. Socolow, "The Myth of the War of the Worlds Panic", Slate, October 28, 2013 analysis
- Yet there is only scant anecdotal evidence to suggest that many listeners actually took some action after hearing the broadcast, such as packing belongings, grabbing guns, or fleeing in motor vehicles.Robert E. Bartholomew, "The Martian Panic Sixty Years Later: What Have We Learned?", Skeptical Inquirer, November/December 1998 analysis
- Another reason that the book's continuity with later Bureau work is overlooked is that Cantril himself insisted on a dramatic prose style and chapter structure and exaggerated the extent of the panic (Socolow, 2008b).Jefferson D. Pooley and Michael J. Socolow, "Checking Up on The Invasion from Mars", International Journal of Communication 7 (2013) analysis
The New York Times reported that at least a score of adults required medical treatment for shock and hysteria.Refuted by
Researchers in Princeton's Office of Radio Research, working under the direction of Cantril, sought to verify a rumor that several people were treated for shock at St. Michael's Hospital in Newark, N.J. The rumor was checked and found to be inaccurate. When the same researchers surveyed six New York City hospitals six weeks after the broadcast, “none of them had any record of any cases brought in specifically on account of the broadcast.”
refuted2 against3 pointsThe claim rested on- This time at least a score of adults required medical treatment for shock and hysteria.The New York Times, October 31, 1938, "Radio Listeners in Panic, Taking War Drama as Fact" (reproduced text) primary
Refuted by- Researchers in Princeton's Office of Radio Research, working under the direction of Cantril, sought to verify a rumor that several people were treated for shock at St. Michael's Hospital in Newark, N.J. The rumor was checked and found to be inaccurate. When the same researchers surveyed six New York City hospitals six weeks after the broadcast, “none of them had any record of any cases brought in specifically on account of the broadcast.”Jefferson Pooley and Michael J. Socolow, "The Myth of the War of the Worlds Panic", Slate, October 28, 2013 analysis
- Cantril's researchers found that contrary to what had been claimed, no admissions for shock were made at a Newark hospital during the broadcast; hospitals in New York City similarly reported no extra admissions that night.Wikipedia, "The War of the Worlds (1938 radio drama)" summary
Unresolved 1no settled answer
How many listeners switched from the Chase and Sanborn Hour to Welles's broadcast cannot be measured from the data collected.▰▰▰▱▱ roughly even chance1 against2 points
Supports- No scholar, however, has ever isolated or extrapolated an actual number of dial twirlers. The data collected was simply not specific enough for us to know how many listeners might have switched over to WellesJefferson Pooley and Michael J. Socolow, "The Myth of the War of the Worlds Panic", Slate, October 28, 2013 analysis
Against- Historian A. Brad Schwartz, after studying hundreds of letters from people who heard "The War of the Worlds" as well as contemporary audience surveys, concluded that very few people frightened by Welles's broadcast had tuned out from Bergen's program.Wikipedia, "The War of the Worlds (1938 radio drama)" summary
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